Republican politics force Collins to the right

Is Sen. Susan Collins a moderate? Is anybody?

Much depends on the definition of “moderate.” A Washington rating organization classified Collins as a moderate by focusing on the number of bills she sponsors with Democrats. Others see her as a moderate because she votes with President Trump less than any other GOP senator.

Missing in both of these ratings is what the jointly sponsored bills are about or the issues on which she disagrees with Trump. If she joins with Democrats mostly on routine bills or opposes Trump mainly on low priority matters, that would put her moderate status in question.

Collins supported Trump’s nominees to the Supreme Court and tax legislation that favors the wealthy over average taxpayers. She opposed the Affordable Care Act before she blocked Trump’s effort to kill it.

Looking at her opposition to Trump, it’s important to understand if her vote finally mattered. She was critically important in saving Obamacare. Sometimes her votes opposing Trump allowed her to favor the views of Mainers without her vote blocking a win for the president.

To the degree Collins lined up with Democrats, she might claim to have shown bipartisanship. “Working across the aisle” only matters if it produces legislative results, not merely a relatively meaningless moderate rating.

Being a moderate once meant something more than bipartisanship. While some senators loyally followed their party’s positions, others sought practical solutions free from party dictates. They were said to be “pragmatic” rather than “dogmatic.” The idea of party allegiance was weaker.

No national politician, including Collins, is labeled as pragmatic these days. Being pragmatic is the equivalent of being disloyal. Senators promise to push party policies not practical solutions. Posturing is at a premium.

There seems to be little room for a politician who promises to find a compromise solution instead of promising that they already know the solution and will “fight” for it. Voters are expected to line up behind candidates whose solutions they like.

But what about those voters who classify themselves as moderates and say they will vote for moderate candidates? If those voters still exist, they are a dying breed.

Moderate voters today avoid extreme conservative or liberal policies. That is likely to be most voters. Their moderate status depends less on support for practical policies than on avoiding extreme politics. They are swing voters, trying to avoid the extreme ideology that they dislike more.

While many people like to think of themselves as moderates, few behave that way. Look at poll results or election predictions. They are heavily influenced by so-called “leaners” who are inclined to support one party but say they are not fully committed. They usually vote in line with their leanings.

People aren’t toss-ups; elections are. If potential voters for each party are roughly equal, the election can be rated as a toss-up.

So-called moderates may either “hold their nose” and vote for the candidate they dislike least, throw their vote to a third party candidate or don’t vote at all. So many fell into the last two groups – third-party voters or nonvoters – that they cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election.

Collins’ long-term success was previously based on seeking the middle ground and serving her constituency. In a less demanding GOP, she was able to do pursue that approach.

For decades, the congressional Republican Party has been increasing its demands that representatives and senators must follow party policy. If they don’t, they can lose powerful committee assignments that would benefit their states. So, they fall in line.

In the states, the GOP has been taken over by its conservative wing and has become Trump’s party. If an incumbent like Collins wants to avoid a primary challenge, the answer is to shed moderation and move toward Trump. The trick is to keep enough independent and Democratic support.

She has tried to work around the Republican discipline by keeping at least an oratorical distance from some of the actions of her party’s leaders. She is often “concerned” about Trump’s actions, but that does not translate into taking risks by outright opposition. Her words increasingly fall flat.

The GOP tolerates some independence from Collins on lower priority matters, because it needs her vote to ensure the party’s control of the Senate.

The most important single vote of any senator is not on any issue. It’s about which party controls the Senate. If Collins wins, that’s a vote for Trump-style GOP control. If Sara Gideon wins, that’s a vote for Democratic control.

No other vote cast on any issue will be nearly as important as that first vote cast by Collins or Gideon in the Senate next January. Neither can be a moderate on that one.

Gordon L. Weil

About Gordon L. Weil

Gordon L. Weil formerly wrote for the Washington Post and other newspapers, served on the U.S. Senate and EU staffs, headed Maine state agencies and was a Harpswell selectman.